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Monday, 17 September

13:33

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Branscombe Road, Claremont "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Branscombe Road, Claremont
STATUS: Going
TYPE: VEGETATION FIRE
SIZE: Not reported
Number of Vehicles:
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/a/58862
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Mon, 17 Sep 2018 21:33:32 +1000

11:16

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Marked Tree Road, HOLLOW TREE "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Marked Tree Road, HOLLOW TREE
STATUS: Patrol
TYPE: VEGETATION FIRE
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles:
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/265765
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Mon, 17 Sep 2018 19:16:24 +1000

01:37

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Terry Street, GLENORCHY "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Terry Street, GLENORCHY
STATUS: Going
TYPE: ALARM
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/265751
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Mon, 17 Sep 2018 09:37:12 +1000

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Sunday, 16 September

02:52

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Torpy Avenue, SNUG "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Torpy Avenue, SNUG
STATUS: Going
TYPE: ALARM
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/265739
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Sun, 16 Sep 2018 10:52:16 +1000

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Saturday, 15 September

16:30

Wentworth By-Election: Prospects And Polls "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

WENTWORTH (Lib vs ALP, 17.8%)
Cause of vacancy: Resignation of Malcolm Turnbull

A by-election for Wentworth has been set down for Saturday 20 October following the resignation from parliament of the former Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull.  This post will give an assessment of how this by-election stands in history and will also comment critically on polling. As I start it on 14 Sep I won't be brave enough to predict the winner yet, but I may do so later.  This post will be updated with new polls and changed assessments through to polling day.

By-elections often produce big swings against governments, but surely 17.8% is safe?  After all, there has only been one larger swing in federal by-election history (20.1% in Wakefield, 1938).  In fact there are at least two reasons not to take the seat's safety for granted.  These are the historic circumstances of the by-election and the prospect of losing the seat to an independent.  While I've seen some spinning suggesting that a double-digit swing should be viewed as a shocker for the Liberal Party even if they lose the seat, I think the circumstances are so unusual that they'd take a win by any margin now.

Wentworth

Wentworth (see Poll Bludger preview) is a Federation seat and as such stands alongside Kooyong with a nearly spotless record of Liberal victory.  It has been won by the endorsed (or an endorsed) Liberal-or-precursor candidate every time but one, the exception being 1929.  Incumbent Walter Marks was one of the rebels who voted with Billy Hughes to bring down the Bruce government.  Marks was not endorsed for his troubles, but beat the endorsed candidate anyway.  The seat was so safe for the conservative side that in 1931 both candidates were endorsed by the United Australia Party, and Marks was defeated by the other UAP candidate. No current federal seat created before 1949 has a completely perfect record of being always won by the endorsed Liberal-or-precursor candidate, though Barker (1903) has always been won by a conservative party of some kind.

Wentworth hasn't always been super-safe.  It almost fell in the 1943 Curtin landslide, and in 1993 then Opposition Leader John Hewson had an unconvincing 55.5% 2PP result.  In 2007 Turnbull (who had wrested the seat from Peter King prior to the 2004 election) was held to 53.9% 2PP.  Overall it was inside 60-40 at every general election between 1984 and 2007.  Margins blew out from 2010 with Turnbull's status as former Opposition Leader and then Prime Minister.

Standard By-Election Swings

As noted in my...

02:12

CONVERT WHALE FACTORY SHIP - BROWN. "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

The humane world breathed a sigh of relief yesterday when Japan was trounced in the International Whaling Commission vote on its motion for open-slather whaling, Australian environmentalist Bob Brown said today.

Japan, with a team including 9 politicians, and with its representative chairing the meeting, was whalloped 41-27 in its effort to drop the 32 years old moratorium on commercial whaling. The success of a Brazilian motion, for the IWC to become a whale conservation organisation, removed any lingering hopes of Japan ever having its whaling fleet endorsed.

Thursday, 13 September

07:02

New Tarkine forest occupation established to prevent logging "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

Bob Brown Foundation has today announced a new peaceful forest vigil has been established to occupy ancient forests in Tasmanias takayna / Tarkine.  These forests are threatened by a new logging road this Spring / Summer. 

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