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Saturday, 17 November

07:17

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Sandy Bay Road, SANDY BAY "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Sandy Bay Road, SANDY BAY
STATUS: Going
TYPE: ALARM
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/18036754
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Sat, 17 Nov 2018 17:17:20 +1100

02:04

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Carriage Drive, QUEENS DOMAIN "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Carriage Drive, QUEENS DOMAIN
STATUS: Going
TYPE: VEGETATION FIRE
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/18036700
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Sat, 17 Nov 2018 12:04:24 +1100

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Friday, 16 November

08:39

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Vieste Drive, GLENORCHY "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Vieste Drive, GLENORCHY
STATUS: Going
TYPE: VEGETATION FIRE
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/18036608
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Fri, 16 Nov 2018 18:39:49 +1100

08:33

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Lonnavale Road, JUDBURY "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Lonnavale Road, JUDBURY
STATUS: Going
TYPE: STRUCTURE FIRE
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 2
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/18036606
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Fri, 16 Nov 2018 18:33:08 +1100

06:30

What Branches of Government Could Help Martin Bryant or Jahar Tsarnaev? "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

(L) Justice Michael Kirby,  (R) Trump. Photo: newsmax

by Mary W Maxwell, LLB

Jahar Tsarnaev, the Boston non-bomber, has been in prison for 5 years, and Martin Bryant, the Port Arthur non-shooter, has done over 22 years. Many people have tried to get them out of jail by using popular means.

Popular Means for Martin

For Martin, there was a change.org petition to the Premier of Tasmania, organized by Cherri Bonney who also composed a marvelous song for Martin entitled Wish I Kne...

04:47

Fear And Loathing With Victorian Upper House Preference Flows "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

Following the launch of Antony Green's Legislative Council calculator I've been playing around with some possible scenarios for the Victorian upper house group ticket flows.  Quite a few people are doing this and so there are a number of different estimates about what might happen out there.  What we know from the past is to expect the unexpected - we can say that it looks like preference harvesters will win several undeserved seats, but it's hard to say which ones they will be and who.  The whole exercise is incredibly sensitive to starting assumptions - one micro-party you've never heard of might get 1% instead of 0.5% and suddenly something completely different happens.

At the last Victorian election, five candidates won seats as a result of preference-harvesting:

* In Eastern Victoria, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (2.44%) beat ALP-2 (8.68% over quota) and Green (8.23%)
* In Northern Metro, the Sex Party (2.87%) beat Labor-3 (7.06% over quota)
* In Northern Victoria, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (3.5%) beat L-NP-3 (7.84% over quota) and Greens (7.68%)
* In Western Metro, Democratic Labour Party (2.57%) beat ALP-3 (10.65% over quota) and L-NP-2 (6.90% over quota)
* In Western Victoria, Vote 1 Local Jobs (1.28%) beat Greens (9.19%)

There weren't any cases of candidates winning from well below 1%, but based on our experience of the new Senate system since, none of the above would have won had voters made their own preferencing decisions.  These parties only won because the Group Ticket Voting system created completely fake near-100% preference flows.  Perhaps, had the Senate system been implemented in Victoria before that election, some of the minor parties would have merged into larger groups and polled higher primaries, but that doesn't seem all that likely.

With the release of the new round of Group Tickets it seems that almost all parties have been involved in backroom preference-trading.  There are again tight flows between the micro-parties, largely believed to be networked by Glenn Druery, that seem designed to elect a particular winner or choice of winners in each seat.  Labor has preferenced a range of, for progressives, dubious parties above the Greens in what looks like an attempt to replace the Greens with Druery parties:

* The Aussie Battler Party, an anti-immigration populist outfit that wants to place juries of randomly selected citizens in control of many aspects of the political system, and that promotes illiberal law and order policies including indefinite sentences. This party is the latest home for long-time conservat...

03:24

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Liverpool Street, HOBART "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Liverpool Street, HOBART
STATUS: Going
TYPE: ALARM
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 2
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/18036573
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Fri, 16 Nov 2018 13:24:09 +1100

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Thursday, 15 November

12:27

Poll Roundup: Well That Wasn't Much Of A Honeymoon "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

2PP Aggregate: 54.8 to Labor (+0.8 since last week) by 2016 preferences
54.2 to Labor with One Nation adjustment
Labor would win election "held now" with a very large majority 



It's been a while since my last federal poll roundup.  At that time the Coalition's polling was recovering from the shock caused by the messy and (to the public) inexplicable coup that deposed Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister, and it was too soon to read anything into what we were seeing.  Because the Coalition's polling was in recovery mode but the new Prime Minister was still in a polling honeymoon period it was a matter of waiting for things to settle down to get a feeling for how competitive the Coalition really was.

On my aggregate, the recovery from a post-coup low of 43.9% peaked at 46.7% after seven weeks, and since then things have been getting worse rather than better.  Furthermore, since the defeat in Wentworth, they have been getting worse faster, at least if this week's shocker Newspoll is anything to go by.  The Coalition's current position is worse than at any time with Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister, and also worse than all but the worst few weeks under Tony Abbott.



We haven't had much national polling data since the last roundup article.  The government's last three Newspolls had 2PP votes of 47, 46 and 45.  By last-election preferences after considering the primary votes I aggregated these as 46, 45.4 and 44.3 (Newspoll adjusts for a shift in the preferencing behaviour of One Nation voters since the 2016 election).  Essential has returned 47, 47 and 46, which I converted to 47.2, 47.1 and 45.6, and there was a lone Ipsos at 45, which I entered as 45.1.

Since the change at the top, the average Newspoll 2PP for the government has been 45.3 while the average from Essential has been 46.3.  This is even though Newspoll's preferencing method should on average make Newspoll about 0.9 points better for the Coalition than Essential is.  It is pretty common for dramatic events to produce shifts in how the house effects of different polls relate to each other (for instance, when Turnbull first became Prime Minister, Morgan polls shifted from being Labor-friendly to Coalition-friendly compa...

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Wednesday, 14 November

04:53

Wages growth hits 3-year high "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

Gradual pick-up

It's a steady improvement for wages growth, then, with growth moving up to +2.3 per cent, the highest level in 3 years.

Public sector wages growth of +2.47 per cent is still tracking better than the private sector at +2.14 per cent, mind you...although that gap has narrowed just a tad. 


The picture including bonuses was a shade brighter, with private sector wages including bonuses up by +2.8 per cent.

As anticipated, the recovery is being led by Victoria, with wages growth now up by +2 per cent, while New South Wales wasn't too far behind at +2.4 per cent, and Tasmania did a little better still at +2.6 per cent. 

The resources jurisdictions are still dragging for now, however I do expect this is also set to change


The strongest gains were seen in the healthcare and social assistance sector...

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Tuesday, 13 November

09:15

Musings on a wedding, a funeral, and another road trip. "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

About a month ago, I was woken up at the crack of dawn by my mobile phone ringing. this cant be good news I figured. It was my darling wife who informed me I had to be at Hobart airport by mid-day, shed booked me on a flight to Brisbane that was scheduled to leave at 1PM. her mother, she informed me, was probably going to die that day, or some time very soon, and I was needed for moral support, among other things.

Obviously, I staggered out of bed, packed my bags, forced breakfast down, and cleaned up my mess at the building site.

I had originally been booked a week or more later to attend a wedding, and everything was now up in the air literally as I sat in one of those amazing aluminium tubes that can fly you thousands of kilometres in the blink of an eye lid, thanks to those irreplaceable fossil fuels..

It was warm and sunny when I left Tassie, and pouring rain and cold when I arived in Brisbane. I had planned for this, carrying a raincoat on board. My son picked me up in Brisbane and drove me through peak hour traffic to Caloundra where my mother in law Bettywas going to spend her last three days before calmly passing away, unconscious, I think. It was a lot like turning the ignition off a very old and tired motorcar that had simply reached the end of the road..

At 94, darling old Betty, who has been the kindest and most generous mother in law one could have wished...

02:47

Lowest vacancies since early 2014 "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

Rentals tighten

It's still early days, but the first indications that the dramatic clampdown on lending to investors is leading to tightening rental markets are surfacing.

Nationally the vacancy rate for residential properties fell to just 2 per cent in October, the lowest level in more than 4 years, according to SQM Research. 

Since many apartments were bought off the plan in Sydney and Melbourne many of the most impacted markets will initially include the smaller capital cities and regional centres. 

While Sydney's vacancies remained at 2.8 per cent or ~19,450 rentals in October, Hobart has crashed to just 0.3 per cent or 78 rentals, which is a full blown rental crisis playing out in real time.

Canberra isn't too far behind on that curve, declining from 2 per cent in 2014 to just 0.6 per cent, with vacancies declining again to 387 rental properties (remember many prominent commentators said that land tax 'in theory' would have no impact on the ACT rental market):


Interestingly, now many commentators are saying that the proposed negative gearing changes will have 'no impact' on rental markets too...but that's a whole other story. 

Adel...

Wednesday, 14 December

03:33

3 Lambie Senate investigations into Defence and Vet. affairs still open for submissions "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

jacquirally

Independent JLN Senator for Tasmania Jacqui Lambie has called for Australian Defence Force Personnel, Veterans and their Families to continue to make submissions to 3 special Senate Committees.

To some Australians, because of a lack of mainstream media attention, it may come as a surprise that the Senate established 3 separate investigations into important Defence and Veterans Affairs matters.  I urge all people affected by these matters to make a submission. said Senator Lambie.

1 Suicide by veterans and ex-service personnel http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/VeteranSuicide

On 1 September 2016 the Senate referred the following matter to the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee for inquiry and report by 30 March 2017

2 Operation of the Australian Defence Forces (ADF) resistance to interrogation (RTI) training http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/ADFRTI

On 10 November 2016 the Senate referred the following matter to the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee for inquiry and report by 20 March 2017.

3 Matters raised by NSW Police Strike Force CIVET (Jedi Council Sex Scandal) http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/NSW_police_civet/Terms_of_Reference

On 1 De...

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