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Wednesday, 17 January

16:27

New Commissioned Tasmanian Polls "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

Tasmanian state election season is heating up with regular policy announcements (at least from the government) and rumours that the election could be called this weekend for March 3 (what, not the same day as South Australia again?  Surely too good to be true!)


I expect we will have some public polling before too much longer so we can see if the Liberals have recovered from an utter stinker from EMRS late last year, but in the meantime the shady forces of commissioned polling are out there doing their stuff.  This week Tasmanians were treated to not one but two rounds of robo-bombardment.  A diabolically odd anti-pokies question left many scratching their heads (especially pokie opponents) while reports of the warm fuzzy niceties of the other poll on offer sparked Twitter responses like this:


OK, there was actually only one response like that, but this poll even asked voters if they liked Tasmanian political leaders as human beings!  It also asked if voters thought Jacqui Lambie was good at her job, which came as a surprise to me, because I didn't know she had one anymore.  

MediaReach Liberal Poll

Anyway, the long and cuddly robopoll has seen the partial light of day first, and what this is is a MediaReach internal poll commissioned by the Liberals, with a sample of a whopping 3,000.  Methods details are bereft - I've seen a claim it only canvassed landlines, but I constantly see the same claim about other pollsters who ceased doing so years ago - so there's not much more to say about it yet.  

Now, I'm not sure if ReachTEL weren't available (they're prim and proper about refusing dual commissions if they have a conflict in a market) or if the Liberals just don't trust them anymore, but MediaReach was a novel selection indeed.  This pollster hasn't been seen in Tasmania before and its only previous testable public results have been in the NT, where it was out by about five points 2PP in an electorate poll and a territory election poll.  So what do we know about its accuracy in the Tasmanian or indeed any similar context?  Diddly-squat.  A...

15:28

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Bowhill Road, Jericho "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Bowhill Road, Jericho
STATUS: Patrol
TYPE: VEGETATION FIRE
SIZE: Not reported
Number of Vehicles:
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/a/54590
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Thu, 18 Jan 2018 01:28:26 +1100

13:33

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Gemalla Road, MARGATE "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Gemalla Road, MARGATE
STATUS: Contained
TYPE: STRUCTURE FIRE
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 3
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/258623
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Wed, 17 Jan 2018 23:33:50 +1100

08:20

The Peace Boat is on its way to Australia "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

 

 

Right now, the Peace Boat is on its way to Australia. The Making Waves speaking tour will feature second-generation nuclear test survivor Karina Lester, ICAN Ambassador Scott Ludlam, hibakusha from Hiroshima and Nagasaki and former dairy farmers from Fukushima, all travelling aboard the floating international peace village. Join the tour and help us amplify the call for Australia and Japan to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

FREMANTLE

Thursday 25 January 12-2pm

Foley Hall, Mouat St (between High St and Croke St) at Notre Dame University

Register here.

ADELAIDE

Monday 29 January 6-7:30pm

Gallery Yampu, 1 Jenkins St, Birkenhead

Register here.

MELBOURNE

Thursday 1 February 6-8pm

The Cube, ACMI

Register here.

HOBART

Friday 2 February 12:30-2pm

Parliament Lawns, Salamanca Place. In the event of wet weather, we will move the event into Parliament House.

Free event. Register here.

SYDNEY

...

01:23

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Allunga Road, CHIGWELL "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Allunga Road, CHIGWELL
STATUS: Contained
TYPE: ALARM
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/258606
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Wed, 17 Jan 2018 11:23:47 +1100

00:30

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Pass Road, ROKEBY "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Pass Road, ROKEBY
STATUS: Contained
TYPE: STRUCTURE FIRE
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/258604
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Wed, 17 Jan 2018 10:30:23 +1100

00:27

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Louisa Street, CYGNET "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Louisa Street, CYGNET
STATUS: Contained
TYPE: ALARM
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/258603
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Wed, 17 Jan 2018 10:27:10 +1100

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Tuesday, 16 January

22:00

January 17 On This Day in Australian History "IndyWatch Feed Tas"



1810 - William Bligh arrived at Port Jackson from Hobart in HMS Porpoise.

1839 - NSW minimum price of Crown Land increased from 5 shillings to 12 shillings minimum an acre.

1843 - John Clements Wickham arrived in Brisbane as police magistrate. He was appointed Government Resident on 1st January 1853.

1852 - Sturt Light (Cape Willoughby Lighthouse), SA, first exhibited.

1852 - William Swan Urquhart completed his survey of the town of Ballarat, Victoria.

1859 - The railway line from Footscray to Williamstown Pier (Vic) opened.

1889 - A heatwave hit western New South Wales and pre-empted destructive bushfires.

1895 - Moolooloorun (Aboriginal male, no given surname) was Hanged on gallows constructed at Crescent Lagoon, NT in the presence of other members of his aboriginal community for the murder of an unnamed Chinese man near the Roper River.

1899 - A six foot tidal wave was noted at Charles Point, NT, origins unknown.

1900 - Lolli Kayser Singh was Hanged at Adelaide Gaol for the murder of Sunda Singh at Denial Bay.

1902 - The Richmond Vale Railway Line (NSW) was opened.

1902 - The Stanford Merthyr Branch Railway line (NSW) was opened.

1911 - On this day Melbourne became the first district branch of the Australian Journalists Association ( AJA) to be approved.


1916 - The Linton to Skipton Railway line (Vic) opened.

1922 - Splashing a bit of paint around was profitable for William Beckwith McInnes who took home the very first Archibald Prize for portraiture.

1929 - 800 striking waterside workers rioted, attacking the non-union labour that was brought in to break the strike, with at least one (later) fatality arising from the conflict that of Mounted Constable Evans.

1930 - Australia signed an agreement with Germany regarding the liquidation of German property in Australia.

1941 - The religious group, Jehovah's Witnesses, were banned as a pacifist sect.

1944 - Meat rationing was imposed, allowing the purchase of meat with coupons within a weekly ration per person of up to 680g of high quality meat and 1.8 kg of lower quality meat.

1945 - A fire on the wharves of Fremantle, WA, destroyed many buildings and ships.

1959 - Tasmania's first shark attack in over a century took place at Port Arthur.

1962 - Bushfires surrounding Melbourne caused the loss of 8 lives and extensive property damage.
The media reported that bushfires had spread to the suburbs, coming within 19kms of the Melbourne CBD.

1968 - The rockin', rollin' riding group on the Mornin...

21:59

Tassietimes is back on February 5 (hopefully ...) "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

All things being well ... Tassietimes will be back on February 5

20:59

Vacancies down in 2017; but not everywhere... "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

Seasonal vacancies

As usual vacancy rates were higher in the month of December at 2.5 per cent or 80,092 vacancies.

Despite the record high level of building, vacancies were considerably lower than a year earlier, when there were 89,721 vacancies according to SQM Research figures.

The year-on-year decrease reflects a combination of strong population growth and a very high volume of higher-density apartments still under construction, there being a lag in the completion of this dwelling type. 

Hobart has a record low vacancy rate for any capital city of an extremely tight 0.3 per cent, while Canberra (1.3 per cent) and Adelaide (1.5 per cent) remain tight rental markets. 

Asking rents have increased strongly in Hobart and Canberra accordingly over 2017. 

Perth and Darwin also seem to have turned a corner, with vacancy rates well down from a year earlier, while Melbourne's 2.1 per cent vacancy rate was also well down from 2.4 per cent in December 2016.

This downtrend wasn't the case everywhere however, with Sydney recording a multi-year high reading of 2.6 per cent in December, up from 2.3 per cent last year. 

The numbers can jag around a bit, but smoothing the figures on a 6mMA basis gives a sense of the relative condition of the rental market in each city and the prevailing trends. 


At the end of the 2017 financial year, New South Wales had a record 64,470 attached dwellings under construction, with the overdue flood of completions doubtless accounting for the jump in December. 

...

14:43

Johnston Team Routs The Old Guard In Glenorchy Council Elections "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

In tonight's counting we've seen the sequel to the Kafkaesque demise of the previous Glenorchy City Council, and it's worth briefly explaining what has gone on, if only so that people understand what a provisional distribution is.

Kristie Johnston has been re-elected Mayor with 86.4% of the vote to 13.6% for sole opponent Steven King.  That election has been declared.  I cannot remember a larger win in a mayoral contest in Tasmania, but there has probably been one.  There have been larger wins in Legislative Council contests sometimes.

Matt Stevenson has been elected Deputy Mayor with 56.4% of the primary vote in a field of six.  That election too has been declared.  The runner-up, Simon Fraser on 13.8%, has finished ahead of two incumbent aldermen.  Incumbent Deputy, Harry Quick, has polled 9.6%, a 20-point swing against his 2014 result.  I am unsure if any incumbent deputy has ever polled such a low primary vote in such a contest in Tasmanian council voting. 

What is not finished yet is the aldermanic count.  The TEC has released a sample result based on the counting of 45% of the ballots counted.  Also, those ballots have yet to be checked by being entered again.  This is labelled as a "possible result" only, because if the breakup of the 55% of ballots not yet entered is different then the results may be a bit different.  When this process was introduced in 2014, we reliably saw that the candidates near the top of the winner lists always won, but the interim winners in the last few positions didn't always all make it.

In this case, there is a fair chance that we are looking at the final composition of the new Council, because Steven King currently wins the final place by 91.7 votes, and that is a lot to make up with 45% of the sample counted.  There also don't seem to be any obvious exclusion order tricks at the end.  But we do need to wait for the final button press to see if any of the defeated candidates can make a comeback on what remains.

The status of Quick in the count has also caused some confusion.  In the interim sample he is shown as "Remaining in the count".  However, if he remains in that position, he loses.  The term "remaining in the count" means the last candidate left without quota who isn't elected but doesn't have their preferences thrown either - 11th in a race for 10 seats in this case.

In the interim distribution, Kristie Johnston has a staggering 59% of the vote (6.6 quotas).  It may be that an aldermanic vote this high has been recorded on a Tasmanian council but I am not aware of such a case.  The nearest I know of is Terry Martin getting 53% in 1999...

05:50

Gardner and Short top scorers in Big Bash League "IndyWatch Feed Tas"

Two Aboriginal cricketers DArcy Short and Ashleigh Gardner hold the records for the highest individual scores in the history of crickets Big Bash League (BBL). Northern Territorian Short blasted 122 not out off 69 balls including eight sixes and eight fours as he steered the Hobart Hurricanes to a last-ball BBL win over Brisbane at the Gabba on January 10. Sydneysider Gardner opened the Womens Big Bash League (WBBL) competition with 114 off just 52 balls for the Sydney Sixers against the Melbourne Stars at Wollongong on December 9.

03:39

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Smooth Island, DUNALLEY "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Smooth Island, DUNALLEY
STATUS: Patrol
TYPE: STRUCTURE FIRE
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 2
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/258578
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Tue, 16 Jan 2018 13:39:10 +1100

Monday, 15 January

22:21

Current Alerts List Southern Region: Liverpool Street, HOBART "hobart IndyWatch Emergency Feed"

ALERT LEVEL: No Alert Level
Region: S
LOCATION: Liverpool Street, HOBART
STATUS: Going
TYPE: ALARM
SIZE: Not Available
Number of Vehicles: 1
More Info: http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/i/258570
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: Tasmania Fire Service
UPDATED: Tue, 16 Jan 2018 08:21:34 +1100

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